NBA games

MEM @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
110–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM22273526110
MIA27233523108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 32 30 5 3
Desmond Bane S 36 17 9 6
Scotty Pippen Jr. 27 17 1 7
Jaylen Wells S 26 13 7 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 13 4 1
Santi Aldama 30 9 8 2
Zach Edey S 28 8 13 1
Luke Kennard 22 3 2 1
Lamar Stevens 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 35 9 4
Bam Adebayo S 34 26 7 5
Kel'el Ware S 35 13 15 0
Davion Mitchell 37 11 4 7
Duncan Robinson 11 6 3 0
Haywood Highsmith 26 6 3 2
Kyle Anderson 20 6 2 2
Pelle Larsson S 23 3 2 3
Alec Burks S 16 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
8 Zach Edey MEM
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
14%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 29.2 4.7 7.2
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.3 4.3 5.9
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 22.4 4.2 4.1
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.3 7.4 4.6
5 Desmond Bane MEM 19.9 4.8 5.1
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.8 5.1 2.0
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.6 5.4 3.7
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.3 10.2 1.5
9 Davion Mitchell MIA 13.1 3.7 5.5
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.7 3.9 5.5
11 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.4 3.6 3.2
12 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.9 1.7 1.4
13 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.6 3.2 1.6
14 Zach Edey MEM 8.5 6.7 1.2
15 Terry Rozier MIA 8.1 2.7 2.2
16 Alec Burks MIA 7.9 2.4 1.2
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.9 2.0
18 Luke Kennard MEM 7.5 2.5 3.2
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.3 2.5 1.8
20 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.8 3.5 2.4
21 Jay Huff MEM 4.7 2.2 0.6
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.0 2.2 0.9
23 Cam Spencer MEM 3.3 1.1 0.8
24 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.1 2.2 0.6
25 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.1 2.5 0.5
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.0 2.1 0.7
27 Isaiah Stevens MIA 2.9 1.4 1.6
28 Josh Christopher MIA 2.8 1.3 0.8
29 John Konchar MEM 2.6 2.6 0.7
30 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.6 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.