NBA games

ORL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
109–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32292028109
WSH2718312197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home WSH
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 39 33 18 8
Franz Wagner S 34 27 5 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 13 3 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 10 7 2
Cory Joseph S 25 8 2 1
Cole Anthony 14 8 1 0
Anthony Black 23 6 3 4
Jonathan Isaac 14 4 4 1
Caleb Houstan 11 0 2 0
Gary Harris 15 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington S 37 32 9 7
Marcus Smart S 25 12 3 0
AJ Johnson S 29 11 4 2
Alex Sarr S 32 10 6 6
Justin Champagnie S 23 8 1 0
Jaylen Martin 22 7 2 1
Tristan Vukcevic 14 7 1 0
Colby Jones 37 6 7 0
Anthony Gill 22 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bub Carrington · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
4 Bub Carrington WSH
10%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
6 AJ Johnson WSH
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Cory Joseph ORL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
11%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 30.0 8.4 5.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 25.0 6.4 5.6
3 Alex Sarr WSH 16.2 5.9 2.0
4 Anthony Black ORL 12.9 4.5 3.2
5 AJ Johnson WSH 12.9 3.4 3.5
6 Cole Anthony ORL 12.2 4.6 3.5
7 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 11.7 5.0 1.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.2 7.1 1.4
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.8 3.3 2.0
10 Kyshawn George WSH 10.8 4.3 2.5
11 Bub Carrington WSH 10.7 4.3 4.9
12 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 10.0 3.2 4.2
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.6 6.6 1.5
14 Cory Joseph ORL 8.3 3.3 2.6
15 Marcus Smart WSH 8.1 2.1 2.8
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.5 2.1 1.3
17 Colby Jones WSH 6.5 2.6 1.5
18 Jaylen Martin WSH 5.6 3.0 1.3
19 Anthony Gill WSH 5.2 2.2 0.8
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 4.8 1.3
21 JT Thor WSH 4.0 2.7 0.7
22 Tristan da Silva ORL 3.9 1.8 0.8
23 Gary Harris ORL 3.8 2.3 1.1
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 3.1 0.7
25 Jett Howard ORL 2.9 1.1 0.6
26 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.7 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.