NBA games

NO @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
98–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO1631252698
LAC22372431114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jose Alvarado S 27 17 2 10
Bruce Brown S 23 16 5 1
Kelly Olynyk S 26 12 4 3
Antonio Reeves S 33 11 0 1
Jamal Cain 21 10 1 1
Karlo Matkovic 18 10 5 2
Elfrid Payton 21 6 4 4
Yves Missi S 27 6 12 4
Keion Brooks Jr. 22 6 2 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 19 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 38 28 3 3
James Harden S 34 21 0 10
Ivica Zubac S 33 17 10 6
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 16 1 1
Norman Powell S 31 11 1 1
Kris Dunn S 19 11 7 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 19 3 4 1
Nicolas Batum 14 3 1 1
Trentyn Flowers 3 2 0 0
Drew Eubanks 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Olynyk · Layup (2 pts) · 10:17 Q1
"Kelly Olynyk makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
19%
2 Norman Powell LAC
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
4 Yves Missi NO
10%
5 Kelly Olynyk NO
9%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Jose Alvarado NO
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Bruce Brown NO
7%
10 Antonio Reeves NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
23%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.1 7.1 4.0
2 James Harden LAC 24.6 5.8 7.8
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.0 11.7 3.2
4 Norman Powell LAC 16.8 2.7 2.4
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.7 3.8 3.8
6 Yves Missi NO 11.2 7.8 1.5
7 Kelly Olynyk NO 10.9 5.2 4.3
8 Bruce Brown NO 10.4 3.8 2.4
9 Jose Alvarado NO 10.2 2.7 4.8
10 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.6 5.5 1.5
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.4 3.5 1.1
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.9 3.0 2.1
13 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 7.4 3.6 1.8
14 Antonio Reeves NO 7.0 1.5 1.1
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.6 3.2 1.3
16 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 5.4 2.7 0.8
17 Elfrid Payton NO 4.6 2.8 4.8
18 Ben Simmons LAC 4.0 3.8 2.8
19 Lester Quinones NO 3.6 1.3 0.7
20 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.1 2.4 0.6
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 3.1 1.3 0.7
22 Patty Mills LAC 2.8 0.6 0.5
23 Jamal Cain NO 2.5 1.0 0.7
24 Cam Christie LAC 1.7 0.8 0.5
25 Kobe Brown LAC 1.6 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.