NBA games

SA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
113–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA33332225113
DEN21333121106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DEN
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 31 20 8 3
Chris Paul S 32 17 5 8
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 16 10 0
Blake Wesley 21 15 2 1
Stephon Castle S 33 15 15 9
Julian Champagnie S 32 14 4 2
Malaki Branham 20 13 1 2
Jordan McLaughlin 17 3 0 2
Bismack Biyombo S 31 0 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 40 30 11 6
Hunter Tyson S 30 18 6 0
Jalen Pickett S 35 17 11 10
DeAndre Jordan S 36 10 17 1
Vlatko Cancar 25 8 3 2
Zeke Nnaji S 23 8 3 1
Trey Alexander 20 7 2 1
Spencer Jones 24 4 4 2
Dario Saric 7 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Paul · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Chris Paul makes 14-foot jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
19%
2 Harrison Barnes SA
15%
3 Devin Vassell SA
14%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
13%
5 Bismack Biyombo SA
13%
6 Jalen Pickett DEN
13%
7 Chris Paul SA
12%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
0%
9 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephon Castle SA 20.5 5.1 6.3
2 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.3 5.3 8.8
3 Devin Vassell SA 17.7 4.9 3.0
4 Keldon Johnson SA 13.8 5.7 2.5
5 Peyton Watson DEN 11.5 5.2 1.7
6 Harrison Barnes SA 11.4 2.9 2.0
7 Chris Paul SA 10.0 3.6 5.6
8 Julian Champagnie SA 9.8 3.9 2.0
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 8.4 4.1 1.4
10 Blake Wesley SA 6.3 2.2 2.2
11 Dario Saric DEN 6.1 3.9 2.0
12 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.7 2.4 2.5
13 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.5 4.9 1.4
14 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.4 6.2 1.5
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.2 3.1 1.0
16 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.5 2.5 0.8
17 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.8 1.2 1.3
18 Malaki Branham SA 3.6 1.4 0.8
19 PJ Hall DEN 2.9 1.8 0.4
20 Spencer Jones DEN 2.6 2.0 0.4
21 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.4 2.4 0.6
22 Trey Alexander DEN 2.4 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.