NBA games

ATL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34382422118
DAL32353419120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DAL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 25 4 12
Onyeka Okongwu S 40 20 14 2
Dyson Daniels S 33 17 6 5
Caris LeVert 24 14 4 5
Vit Krejci 16 11 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 14 11 5 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 9 3 1
Georges Niang 20 6 2 1
Terance Mann 21 5 3 2
Dominick Barlow 8 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 30 34 15 2
Klay Thompson S 29 17 4 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 33 14 4 10
Jaden Hardy 22 13 1 3
Max Christie 25 11 3 0
Daniel Gafford 20 11 6 0
Caleb Martin 28 8 1 1
Naji Marshall S 35 6 2 8
Dereck Lively II S 16 4 5 1
Kai Jones 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes dunk (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
12%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
9%
6 Klay Thompson DAL
9%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
9 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.8 3.9 12.3
2 Anthony Davis DAL 24.3 10.5 3.6
3 P.J. Washington DAL 19.6 6.2 2.8
4 Naji Marshall DAL 19.5 6.7 3.6
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 17.9 4.1 7.4
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.1 8.1 5.5
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.3 10.3 2.7
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 16.1 4.2 1.7
9 Klay Thompson DAL 14.5 3.8 2.4
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.7 9.1 2.4
11 Caris LeVert ATL 12.8 3.7 2.7
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.5 8.1 2.9
13 Georges Niang ATL 10.4 2.1 1.7
14 Max Christie DAL 10.1 4.1 1.9
15 Terance Mann ATL 9.7 2.9 1.6
16 Kai Jones DAL 9.1 6.3 1.2
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.5 1.5 1.3
18 Vit Krejci ATL 7.0 3.0 2.1
19 Dominick Barlow ATL 6.5 4.3 1.1
20 Caleb Martin DAL 6.2 3.3 1.8
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.6 4.0 1.0
22 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 4.9 2.1 0.6
23 Dwight Powell DAL 4.3 2.6 1.4
24 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.