NBA games

DET @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27322222103
OKC41243222119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home OKC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 37 23 3 3
Dennis Schroder S 40 15 4 7
Jalen Duren S 34 13 13 3
Ausar Thompson S 30 13 8 3
Malik Beasley 33 11 1 0
Tobias Harris S 22 10 4 2
Paul Reed 15 9 9 0
Simone Fontecchio 12 6 0 1
Lindy Waters III 18 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 33 6 3
Jalen Williams S 33 23 5 3
Chet Holmgren S 33 22 11 4
Luguentz Dort S 33 14 7 1
Cason Wallace S 32 13 5 4
Isaiah Joe 22 5 0 1
Isaiah Hartenstein 23 5 8 6
Kenrich Williams 17 4 4 1
Dillon Jones 10 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 2-foot dunk (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Tobias Harris DET
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Dennis Schroder DET
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
16%
Layup
59%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 4.2 7.3
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.6 4.8 6.0
3 Jalen Duren DET 14.5 9.7 2.2
4 Malik Beasley DET 14.3 2.7 2.4
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.2 9.2 3.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.9 8.1 2.1
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.8 6.4 1.9
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.0 3.4 1.7
9 Dennis Schroder DET 12.6 2.6 5.8
10 Cason Wallace OKC 12.5 3.6 3.3
11 Ausar Thompson DET 11.0 4.9 1.8
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.0 4.3 1.6
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.9 2.9 1.5
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.9 4.1 2.0
15 Alex Caruso OKC 8.7 3.5 2.2
16 Ronald Holland II DET 8.1 3.3 1.9
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.9 5.4 1.9
18 Marcus Sasser DET 6.5 1.0 1.7
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.1 4.8 1.4
20 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.9 2.5 0.9
21 Dillon Jones OKC 4.0 2.2 1.1
22 Branden Carlson OKC 3.8 2.0 0.6
23 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.2 1.3 0.9
24 Paul Reed DET 3.1 2.1 0.7
25 Lindy Waters III DET 2.6 1.0 0.7
26 Tolu Smith DET 2.6 1.9 0.6
27 Adam Flagler OKC 1.9 1.0 0.6
28 Bobi Klintman DET 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.