NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
124–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29303233124
BOS22233622103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 25 6 9
Bam Adebayo S 31 21 5 6
Kyle Anderson 24 19 1 1
Pelle Larsson S 30 16 4 4
Davion Mitchell 34 13 4 7
Haywood Highsmith 26 10 4 0
Alec Burks S 19 10 2 0
Kel'el Ware S 32 7 5 0
Josh Christopher 2 3 0 0
Isaiah Stevens 2 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 29 24 9 4
Derrick White S 31 16 4 6
Jayson Tatum S 32 16 3 7
Luke Kornet S 21 14 6 2
Payton Pritchard 31 10 4 2
Neemias Queta 19 7 7 2
Sam Hauser S 26 6 3 0
Drew Peterson 5 3 0 0
Baylor Scheierman 17 3 3 0
JD Davison 5 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
4 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
5 Xavier Tillman BOS
11%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Alec Burks MIA
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.2 8.1 6.5
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 4.1 5.0
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.7 5.1 4.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.3 7.3 3.9
5 Derrick White BOS 16.6 5.5 5.9
6 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.9 9.5 1.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.8 3.7 2.5
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.8 3.0 4.4
9 Sam Hauser BOS 10.6 3.1 1.3
10 Terry Rozier MIA 7.6 2.6 2.0
11 Luke Kornet BOS 7.5 6.4 1.1
12 Alec Burks MIA 7.0 2.1 1.2
13 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.8 3.3 2.8
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 3.4 1.8
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.0 3.1 1.8
16 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.6 2.2 1.5
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.3 1.8 1.3
18 Neemias Queta BOS 3.6 4.2 0.5
19 Torrey Craig BOS 2.6 1.6 0.3
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.3 0.5
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.3 1.7 0.5
22 Isaiah Stevens MIA 2.2 1.1 1.5
23 Josh Christopher MIA 2.0 1.0 0.6
24 Drew Peterson BOS 1.7 0.9 0.6
25 JD Davison BOS 1.7 0.7 0.4
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.7 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.