NBA games

SAC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
111–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC26262534111
WSH26293625116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home WSH
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 29 7 8
Zach LaVine S 35 18 2 2
Domantas Sabonis S 35 18 16 7
Keegan Murray S 35 18 5 3
Malik Monk 35 13 3 3
Jonas Valanciunas 13 12 6 0
Keon Ellis S 22 2 3 0
Trey Lyles 18 1 4 1
Markelle Fultz 8 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 24 23 2 2
AJ Johnson S 37 19 2 6
Bub Carrington S 41 19 2 7
Tristan Vukcevic 22 17 8 3
Alex Sarr S 26 15 4 1
Anthony Gill 31 10 5 1
Justin Champagnie S 30 8 11 3
JT Thor 26 3 7 1
Richaun Holmes 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
9 AJ Johnson WSH
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.1 3.8 6.1
2 Zach LaVine SAC 20.6 3.4 4.3
3 Malik Monk SAC 20.6 4.4 5.9
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.3 2.4 4.2
5 Alex Sarr WSH 19.0 6.1 2.8
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.3 6.6 1.6
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.2 11.4 5.0
8 AJ Johnson WSH 12.7 3.3 3.8
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 12.4 5.0 1.7
10 Kyshawn George WSH 11.7 4.6 2.7
11 Keon Ellis SAC 10.6 3.3 3.0
12 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 10.5 3.3 4.7
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.4 6.3 1.6
14 Bub Carrington WSH 10.3 4.7 5.3
15 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.0 6.6 1.7
16 Trey Lyles SAC 7.3 4.3 1.5
17 Colby Jones WSH 7.1 2.8 1.8
18 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 6.5 5.5 1.3
19 Markelle Fultz SAC 4.1 1.5 1.3
20 Anthony Gill WSH 3.7 1.5 0.7
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.3 1.7 0.6
22 JT Thor WSH 3.2 2.2 0.5
23 Isaac Jones SAC 3.1 1.3 0.4
24 Doug McDermott SAC 2.9 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.