NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
105–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA25202832105
IND32213432119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 24 18 4 5
Mark Williams S 32 16 12 1
Seth Curry S 30 16 4 2
Jusuf Nurkic 20 13 5 1
KJ Simpson S 31 9 5 4
DaQuan Jeffries 24 8 2 1
Moussa Diabate 13 8 3 0
Tidjane Salaun 27 7 5 2
Josh Okogie 13 5 1 0
Josh Green S 8 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 22 1 10
Aaron Nesmith S 26 16 3 1
Pascal Siakam S 28 15 6 1
Myles Turner S 29 15 9 2
Thomas Bryant 19 13 3 1
Jarace Walker 22 10 6 2
Andrew Nembhard S 29 9 2 2
T.J. McConnell 19 8 4 7
Obi Toppin 18 8 4 1
Ben Sheppard 14 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
KJ Simpson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"KJ Simpson makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
4 Myles Turner IND
9%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
6 KJ Simpson CHA
7%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
9 Josh Okogie CHA
6%
10 Josh Green CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
20%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.5 3.9 10.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 20.2 5.4 4.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 19.6 7.2 4.9
4 Mark Williams CHA 16.8 10.7 3.3
5 Myles Turner IND 15.6 7.1 1.8
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.4 4.3 1.6
7 Obi Toppin IND 14.3 4.0 2.1
8 Grant Williams CHA 12.5 6.0 2.0
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.1 4.1 5.0
10 KJ Simpson CHA 11.2 3.9 3.9
11 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 10.1 3.4 1.4
12 Josh Green CHA 9.3 2.3 1.8
13 Damion Baugh CHA 7.8 2.5 3.5
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 2.9 4.6
15 Jarace Walker IND 7.5 2.1 1.8
16 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.4 5.1 2.0
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.3 5.2 1.5
18 Josh Okogie CHA 7.3 2.9 1.4
19 Seth Curry CHA 6.0 1.6 1.6
20 Thomas Bryant IND 5.6 3.4 0.7
21 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.1 3.8 0.6
22 Ben Sheppard IND 4.6 3.2 1.7
23 Quenton Jackson IND 3.2 1.2 1.6
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.2 1.3 0.6
25 Enrique Freeman IND 1.8 0.9 0.4
26 RayJ Dennis IND 1.7 0.7 0.5
27 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.