NBA games

NY @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
105–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34262520105
CLE28253833124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 25 13 1
OG Anunoby S 34 23 6 6
Josh Hart S 37 19 5 4
Precious Achiuwa 21 13 6 1
Mikal Bridges S 36 8 2 3
Delon Wright S 33 7 3 6
Landry Shamet 26 5 2 0
MarJon Beauchamp 2 4 1 0
Tyler Kolek 15 1 0 3
Anton Watson 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 27 6 5
Jarrett Allen S 32 21 8 0
Darius Garland S 32 17 4 6
De'Andre Hunter 26 16 2 0
Evan Mobley S 30 13 4 4
Isaac Okoro 23 11 6 2
Max Strus S 23 8 5 2
Sam Merrill 23 5 4 3
Emoni Bates 2 3 1 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 2 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Darius Garland CLE
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Delon Wright NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.8 10.3 4.2
2 OG Anunoby NY 23.3 4.9 2.5
3 Mikal Bridges NY 23.1 4.0 5.5
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.4 5.6 5.9
5 Darius Garland CLE 21.3 4.7 6.7
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 8.9 3.4
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.8 8.2 1.9
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.5 3.6 1.4
9 Josh Hart NY 11.3 8.1 6.8
10 Max Strus CLE 10.4 3.5 2.9
11 Landry Shamet NY 7.8 2.1 1.1
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.1 7.2 1.0
13 Sam Merrill CLE 6.1 2.7 1.6
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.5 1.5 0.9
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.3 3.6 0.8
16 Delon Wright NY 5.2 2.1 1.4
17 Tyler Kolek NY 4.2 1.7 3.8
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.3 2.0 0.5
19 Javonte Green CLE 3.0 1.7 0.6
20 MarJon Beauchamp NY 2.7 1.3 0.6
21 Luke Travers CLE 2.3 1.5 0.6
22 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.2 1.0 0.7
23 Emoni Bates CLE 2.1 0.8 0.5
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.1 1.1 1.0
25 Anton Watson NY 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.4 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.