NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
140–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
MIN262632281315140
DEN322126331314139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 50 34 10 8
Julius Randle S 50 26 9 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 45 26 8 8
Rudy Gobert S 40 19 12 1
Jaden McDaniels S 44 12 6 0
Josh Minott 12 10 4 1
Mike Conley S 36 9 1 8
Rob Dillingham 4 2 0 0
Jaylen Clark 9 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 53 61 10 10
Aaron Gordon S 47 30 8 5
Christian Braun S 53 18 12 4
Russell Westbrook 38 12 6 7
Jalen Pickett S 32 9 4 5
Peyton Watson S 45 7 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 5 2 2 1
Zeke Nnaji 11 0 0 1
Hunter Tyson 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
27%
2 Julius Randle MIN
10%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
4 Christian Braun DEN
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
8 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
6%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.2 12.5 9.3
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.2 4.4 5.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.3 5.8 5.4
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.9 4.7 3.1
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.4 4.7 7.0
6 Christian Braun DEN 14.9 4.8 3.2
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.8 5.8 2.4
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 11.2 1.8
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.2 5.5 3.0
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.8 3.8 4.0
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.6 2.8 4.0
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.8 4.4 1.4
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.0 3.5 2.7
14 Dario Saric DEN 5.4 3.5 1.8
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.1 1.7 0.9
16 Luka Garza MIN 4.5 1.3 0.8
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.2 5.4 1.0
18 Bones Hyland MIN 3.5 0.9 1.2
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.2 0.7
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.2 1.2 1.7
21 Josh Minott MIN 3.1 1.4 0.7
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.9 1.3 1.0
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.2 0.5
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.4 0.6
25 PJ Hall DEN 2.1 1.4 0.3
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.7 1.1
27 Spencer Jones DEN 1.7 1.2 0.3
28 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.6 2.0 0.5
29 Trey Alexander DEN 1.6 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.