NBA games

PHX @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
123–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX19382640123
MIL31293538133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 43 39 3 11
Grayson Allen S 34 23 4 3
Collin Gillespie S 36 18 2 4
Tyus Jones 27 16 2 2
Nick Richards S 30 13 11 1
Oso Ighodaro 18 6 2 1
Ryan Dunn S 23 5 3 1
Cody Martin 30 3 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 37 5 11
Ryan Rollins S 31 23 5 5
Brook Lopez S 38 22 6 6
Taurean Prince S 37 16 5 1
Kyle Kuzma S 37 12 4 5
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 9 1 2
Pat Connaughton 17 8 1 0
Gary Trent Jr. 27 6 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Rollins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Nick Richards PHX
12%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
6 Ryan Dunn PHX
10%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
7%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.2 11.1 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.5 3.9 8.2
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.5 5.4 2.7
4 Brook Lopez MIL 16.1 5.1 2.5
5 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 13.1 2.5 1.7
6 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 11.9 3.8 3.5
7 Nick Richards PHX 10.9 7.2 1.1
8 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.0 4.9 1.2
9 Tyus Jones PHX 9.5 2.7 3.4
10 Taurean Prince MIL 9.4 2.9 1.8
11 Ryan Rollins MIL 8.2 2.5 2.3
12 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.5 2.3 2.6
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.3 5.9 1.7
14 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.1 3.3 3.3
15 Grayson Allen PHX 6.6 2.2 1.8
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 6.6 5.9 1.2
17 Bol Bol PHX 5.5 2.9 0.9
18 Cody Martin PHX 5.0 3.5 1.2
19 Monte Morris PHX 4.6 1.5 1.0
20 Damion Lee PHX 4.2 1.4 0.7
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.1 2.0 1.4
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 1.7 0.8
23 Tyler Smith MIL 3.3 1.3 0.7
24 Pete Nance MIL 3.1 1.3 0.7
25 Chris Livingston MIL 3.0 1.7 0.6
26 Stanley Umude MIL 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.