NBA games

GS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
134–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS45292931134
MEM32343722125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MEM
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 52 10 8
Jimmy Butler III S 38 27 6 4
Draymond Green S 33 13 10 12
Moses Moody S 36 10 4 1
Quinten Post 20 9 1 1
Brandin Podziemski S 28 8 5 1
Buddy Hield 20 8 3 0
Gui Santos 19 4 6 1
Kevon Looney 10 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 33 36 3 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 22 7 1
Desmond Bane S 35 19 4 5
Santi Aldama 30 18 6 1
Zach Edey S 32 10 16 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 23 10 2 2
Jaylen Wells S 30 5 4 1
Luke Kennard 22 3 1 5
Marvin Bagley III 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
2 Stephen Curry GS
13%
3 Ja Morant MEM
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
9%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 28.4 4.8 8.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.5 4.2 6.1
3 Desmond Bane MEM 19.6 4.9 5.7
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 18.5 7.2 7.4
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.1 4.8 2.0
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.7 5.4 2.7
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.5 5.4 4.3
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.3 3.9 5.9
9 Moses Moody GS 13.0 3.2 2.5
10 Draymond Green GS 11.4 5.8 5.1
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.3 3.1 2.5
12 Luke Kennard MEM 10.2 2.8 3.0
13 Quinten Post GS 9.1 3.8 1.6
14 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.9 3.2 1.8
15 Zach Edey MEM 8.6 6.0 1.2
16 Jay Huff MEM 5.4 2.4 0.8
17 Gui Santos GS 5.3 3.1 1.5
18 GG Jackson MEM 4.1 2.2 1.0
19 Cam Spencer MEM 4.1 1.4 1.0
20 Kevon Looney GS 3.9 4.3 0.8
21 Kevin Knox II GS 3.9 2.0 0.8
22 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.9 2.5 0.7
23 Marvin Bagley III MEM 3.2 2.9 0.5
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.9 1.7 0.7
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.5 0.7
26 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.7 1.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.