NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
118–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32252239118
CHI39313235137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 24 17 1 9
Ja'Kobe Walter S 27 17 4 4
A.J. Lawson 13 13 6 1
Orlando Robinson 21 13 3 2
Jakob Poeltl S 24 12 5 2
Jamal Shead 20 9 0 5
Scottie Barnes S 24 9 4 4
Cole Swider 21 9 2 0
Jared Rhoden 4 8 0 1
Jonathan Mogbo 31 6 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 34 28 3 6
Talen Horton-Tucker 32 27 6 3
Nikola Vucevic S 25 22 10 7
Josh Giddey S 28 17 7 12
Kevin Huerter S 33 16 2 1
Matas Buzelis S 29 9 3 0
Patrick Williams 24 7 3 1
Zach Collins 19 7 12 5
Jalen Smith 4 4 2 0
E.J. Liddell 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamison Battle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
9 Orlando Robinson TOR
6%
10 Jamal Shead TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 26.5 4.5 4.4
2 Josh Giddey CHI 23.3 10.0 8.5
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.6 4.2 6.3
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.6 8.0 5.6
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 17.0 8.1 3.0
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.9 8.0 3.3
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 16.2 4.3 4.1
8 Orlando Robinson TOR 13.5 8.2 3.0
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.9 4.7 1.8
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 11.2 3.9 2.0
11 Jamal Shead TOR 11.1 2.9 5.6
12 A.J. Lawson TOR 10.4 4.2 1.5
13 Jamison Battle TOR 10.0 4.1 1.3
14 Patrick Williams CHI 9.3 3.2 1.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 7.3 4.4 1.1
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 7.1 5.7 2.2
17 Zach Collins CHI 6.3 4.3 1.4
18 Jalen Smith CHI 6.2 5.7 1.3
19 Cole Swider TOR 5.7 2.3 0.9
20 Jared Rhoden TOR 5.4 2.3 0.8
21 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.8 1.9 1.3
22 Jahmir Young CHI 2.9 0.8 1.1
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.8 1.1 1.3
24 Emanuel Miller CHI 2.5 1.0 0.3
25 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.0 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.