NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
91–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2616282191
NY35242125105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 36 26 4 5
Ricky Council IV S 23 15 5 2
Lonnie Walker IV S 33 11 7 4
Alex Reese 16 10 4 1
Adem Bona S 32 9 8 2
Marcus Bagley 19 9 8 0
Justin Edwards S 31 6 2 0
Jared Butler 24 5 2 7
Kyle Lowry 16 0 1 2
Phillip Wheeler 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 33 27 5 0
Landry Shamet 34 20 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 36 14 2 4
Mitchell Robinson S 21 14 14 0
Delon Wright S 33 12 4 4
Josh Hart S 32 9 4 6
Tyler Kolek 20 7 4 7
Precious Achiuwa 27 2 9 1
Kevin McCullar Jr. 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mitchell Robinson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Mitchell Robinson makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 OG Anunoby NY
9%
2 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
6 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
7 Adem Bona PHI
8%
8 Lonnie Walker IV PHI
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Ricky Council IV PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Quentin Grimes PHI 27.0 4.7 5.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.8 10.5 4.8
3 Mikal Bridges NY 25.1 4.3 6.1
4 OG Anunoby NY 24.3 5.3 2.9
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.9 3.6 1.9
6 Justin Edwards PHI 15.6 4.3 2.4
7 Jared Butler PHI 13.4 2.6 5.0
8 Ricky Council IV PHI 12.9 5.6 2.1
9 Josh Hart NY 12.2 8.9 7.3
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.2 5.9 2.3
11 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 11.0 2.9 2.5
12 Adem Bona PHI 10.0 7.3 1.1
13 Landry Shamet NY 7.8 2.3 1.1
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.9 7.2 1.1
15 Alex Reese PHI 5.6 3.6 0.7
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.6 3.6 1.0
17 Delon Wright NY 5.2 2.2 1.6
18 Marcus Bagley PHI 4.7 4.5 0.6
19 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.7 2.2 2.4
20 Tyler Kolek NY 4.2 1.6 3.4
21 MarJon Beauchamp NY 3.9 1.6 0.7
22 Phillip Wheeler PHI 3.2 2.4 0.6
23 Anton Watson NY 3.1 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.