NBA games

POR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
127–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26314030127
ATL27273029113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home ATL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 39 33 10 3
Deni Avdija S 38 32 15 10
Toumani Camara S 30 18 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 29 11 7 5
Dalano Banton S 28 11 7 5
Jabari Walker 15 9 4 0
Matisse Thybulle 29 8 4 5
Duop Reath 17 5 4 1
Kris Murray 12 0 1 0
Rayan Rupert 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 29 4 15
Dyson Daniels S 37 22 10 1
Vit Krejci 24 13 7 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 12 6 3
Caris LeVert 26 10 2 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 9 3 2
Dominick Barlow 15 8 8 2
Terance Mann 16 7 3 0
Georges Niang 17 3 0 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 11 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Trae Young makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
8%
7 Deni Avdija POR
7%
8 Jerami Grant POR
7%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
10 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.3 3.7 12.3
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.2 9.7 5.5
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.0 2.9 4.3
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.5 6.0 3.3
5 Deandre Ayton POR 17.9 10.4 2.3
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 17.7 4.4 1.9
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.0 7.1 6.2
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.5 10.0 2.7
9 Scoot Henderson POR 14.2 3.2 4.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.8 4.5 3.0
11 Caris LeVert ATL 13.6 3.5 3.0
12 Terance Mann ATL 11.6 3.3 1.9
13 Jerami Grant POR 11.5 3.3 2.0
14 Georges Niang ATL 11.4 2.4 1.9
15 Duop Reath POR 8.4 3.8 1.2
16 Donovan Clingan POR 8.3 8.7 1.7
17 Vit Krejci ATL 6.9 2.4 2.2
18 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 6.2 2.5 0.7
19 Dominick Barlow ATL 6.1 3.7 1.0
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.8 1.2
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.7 2.7 1.2
22 Jabari Walker POR 5.1 3.1 0.6
23 Dalano Banton POR 4.2 1.8 1.7
24 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.6 0.5
25 Kris Murray POR 3.8 3.0 0.9
26 Justin Minaya POR 2.2 0.9 0.5
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.