NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
98–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU1929292198
LAL16323422104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 34 20 5 4
Dillon Brooks S 36 16 5 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 27 15 11 1
Alperen Sengun S 35 14 7 6
Tari Eason 22 13 3 0
Jalen Green S 31 9 9 5
Fred VanVleet S 40 7 4 9
Steven Adams 16 4 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dorian Finney-Smith 32 20 6 3
Gabe Vincent 24 20 4 1
Luka Doncic S 38 20 6 9
LeBron James S 38 16 8 4
Austin Reaves S 39 12 8 3
Rui Hachimura S 31 7 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 12 4 2 1
Jaxson Hayes S 14 3 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 2 6 0
Dalton Knecht 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 12-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
8 Jalen Green HOU
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
28%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.3 8.4 8.0
2 Austin Reaves LAL 26.7 4.8 6.2
3 Jalen Green HOU 25.3 6.0 5.2
4 LeBron James LAL 24.3 8.5 7.1
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.4 10.6 5.2
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.3 10.0 5.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.0 3.1 2.7
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.8 3.8 4.9
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.8 6.1 1.9
10 Tari Eason HOU 13.5 7.1 1.7
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 4.2 1.4
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 9.8 5.8 1.5
13 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.5 3.6 1.5
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.5 1.9 1.2
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.7 2.1 1.2
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.7 1.9 1.4
17 Steven Adams HOU 6.6 7.4 1.7
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.3 3.3 1.6
19 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.8 2.2 1.1
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.6 1.7 1.5
21 Jeff Green HOU 4.7 2.3 0.8
22 Jock Landale HOU 4.7 2.4 0.7
23 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.6 3.3 1.4
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 3.0 1.1
25 Bronny James LAL 3.1 0.8 0.7
26 Shake Milton LAL 3.1 1.3 0.8
27 Markieff Morris LAL 3.0 1.0 0.9
28 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.6 2.4 0.3
29 Alex Len LAL 1.7 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.