NBA games

BKN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
113–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25332629113
DAL29342422109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DAL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Johnson S 29 24 3 3
D'Angelo Russell S 31 18 5 11
Jalen Wilson S 29 12 4 4
Ziaire Williams S 25 11 2 0
Tyrese Martin 20 11 6 5
Drew Timme 21 9 3 1
Dariq Whitehead 16 8 2 2
Maxwell Lewis 18 8 3 2
Trendon Watford 24 6 5 1
Nic Claxton S 27 6 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford S 19 17 7 2
P.J. Washington S 31 13 5 2
Klay Thompson S 28 13 3 4
Max Christie 20 12 3 0
Anthony Davis S 28 12 7 5
Spencer Dinwiddie S 31 11 5 8
Jaden Hardy 19 9 0 1
Naji Marshall 27 8 8 3
Kai Jones 16 7 5 2
Caleb Martin 21 7 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Spencer Dinwiddie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
12%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
3 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
4 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
7%
8 Kai Jones DAL
7%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
6%
10 Tyrese Martin BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis DAL 23.3 11.3 3.6
2 Naji Marshall DAL 21.9 6.7 3.9
3 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 19.6 4.2 7.5
4 P.J. Washington DAL 18.9 6.1 2.5
5 Klay Thompson DAL 16.1 3.8 2.5
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.7 10.1 2.3
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.4 3.3 5.2
8 Nic Claxton BKN 13.1 8.7 2.4
9 Keon Johnson BKN 13.1 4.0 3.0
10 Trendon Watford BKN 12.2 3.6 3.7
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.7 4.3 1.7
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.6 8.6 2.9
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.4 3.6 3.3
14 Max Christie DAL 10.2 4.1 2.4
15 Killian Hayes BKN 9.9 2.4 4.6
16 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 9.5 3.8 1.9
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.7 1.7 1.4
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.6 3.1 1.4
19 Kai Jones DAL 8.6 5.9 1.1
20 Caleb Martin DAL 6.9 3.6 2.1
21 Maxwell Lewis BKN 5.9 2.6 1.0
22 Dwight Powell DAL 5.1 3.0 1.7
23 Dariq Whitehead BKN 4.6 1.4 0.7
24 Reece Beekman BKN 3.0 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.