NBA games

CHI @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
117–145
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI18223443117
OKC29454031145

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home OKC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jevon Carter 18 17 2 3
Patrick Williams 29 16 2 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 16 2 2
Josh Giddey S 28 15 8 10
Matas Buzelis S 31 14 7 1
Nikola Vucevic S 21 11 8 2
Jalen Smith 18 10 6 1
Coby White S 23 7 0 1
Julian Phillips 18 5 1 0
Dalen Terry S 23 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Joe 24 31 2 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 27 27 0 12
Jalen Williams S 25 23 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 14 7 2
Luguentz Dort S 26 11 3 0
Cason Wallace 27 10 3 8
Kenrich Williams 18 10 6 2
Alex Caruso 15 7 5 3
Dillon Jones 8 5 4 2
Chet Holmgren S 26 5 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
11%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
8 Lonzo Ball CHI
8%
9 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
12%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 4.7 8.0
2 Coby White CHI 25.8 4.7 5.0
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.1 5.1 6.5
4 Josh Giddey CHI 22.8 9.5 9.1
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.4 8.2 3.4
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.4 9.7 3.7
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.8 8.0 2.1
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.4 4.1 1.8
9 Cason Wallace OKC 11.7 3.6 2.7
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.4 4.0 1.9
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.7 3.2 2.0
12 Alex Caruso OKC 9.6 3.3 2.2
13 Lonzo Ball CHI 8.4 2.6 1.8
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.9 6.0 2.8
15 Patrick Williams CHI 7.3 3.0 1.8
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.3 3.5 2.1
17 Zach Collins CHI 6.6 4.6 1.5
18 Dalen Terry CHI 6.2 2.2 1.7
19 Julian Phillips CHI 5.4 2.4 1.1
20 Jalen Smith CHI 5.1 5.1 1.0
21 Branden Carlson OKC 4.0 2.0 0.7
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 1.9 1.1
23 Jevon Carter CHI 2.9 1.1 1.0
24 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 2.7 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.