NBA games

BOS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
117–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS25412625117
MEM32292418103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MEM
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Al Horford 37 26 8 2
Jayson Tatum S 38 25 14 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 19 5 5
Jrue Holiday S 31 18 7 7
Derrick White S 36 14 8 10
Sam Hauser 25 8 3 3
Payton Pritchard 26 5 6 1
Xavier Tillman S 8 2 3 0
Baylor Scheierman 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 35 26 6 5
Santi Aldama 36 21 8 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 20 15 1
Desmond Bane S 31 12 2 3
Jaylen Wells S 26 10 4 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 17 5 1 3
Zach Edey S 13 4 2 0
Marvin Bagley III 13 2 5 1
Vince Williams Jr. 13 2 0 2
Luke Kennard 19 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Ja Morant MEM
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
7 Al Horford BOS
8%
8 Zach Edey MEM
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
12%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 28.5 4.4 8.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.3 8.7 7.3
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 5.2 4.7
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.9 6.9 2.5
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.6 3.8 2.1
6 Desmond Bane MEM 19.0 5.4 5.4
7 Derrick White BOS 17.5 5.4 6.4
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.9 4.2 5.6
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.3 4.2 4.9
10 Al Horford BOS 12.4 7.6 3.2
11 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 5.3 3.7
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.9 3.5 2.6
13 Sam Hauser BOS 10.6 3.2 1.2
14 Luke Kennard MEM 10.4 2.8 3.4
15 Zach Edey MEM 8.5 6.3 1.3
16 Luke Kornet BOS 8.1 7.0 1.3
17 Jaylen Wells MEM 7.6 3.2 1.7
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.2 3.2 1.7
19 Jay Huff MEM 6.1 2.6 0.7
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.0 2.4 1.7
21 Neemias Queta BOS 4.0 4.5 0.7
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.0 2.2 0.9
23 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.8 2.5 0.7
24 Cam Spencer MEM 3.4 1.0 0.8
25 Torrey Craig BOS 3.1 1.7 0.4
26 John Konchar MEM 3.1 2.5 0.8
27 Marvin Bagley III MEM 2.1 1.7 0.3
28 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.0 1.4 0.5
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.