NBA games

MIA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
120–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA36223428120
WSH2324281994

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home WSH
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 31 28 12 5
Tyler Herro S 33 27 5 5
Pelle Larsson S 30 15 7 5
Terry Rozier 33 15 5 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 14 7 2
Kyle Anderson 24 10 4 3
Kel'el Ware S 22 6 11 0
Alec Burks S 18 3 3 2
Haywood Highsmith 21 2 7 1
Keshad Johnson 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 29 35 3 4
Tristan Vukcevic 22 14 4 1
AJ Johnson S 37 8 3 1
Alex Sarr S 31 8 3 3
Bub Carrington S 38 8 8 9
Richaun Holmes 15 8 8 0
Justin Champagnie S 29 5 5 1
Marcus Smart 20 4 1 2
Jaylen Martin 18 4 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 AJ Johnson WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
19%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.5 4.4 5.7
2 Alex Sarr WSH 20.2 6.2 2.8
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.4 7.5 4.5
4 Jordan Poole WSH 16.6 2.6 3.8
5 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.6 10.7 1.5
6 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.0 3.4 5.1
7 Kyshawn George WSH 11.5 4.8 2.5
8 AJ Johnson WSH 11.2 3.2 3.7
9 Bub Carrington WSH 10.7 4.3 4.5
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.3 5.1 1.4
11 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 10.0 3.4 4.2
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.8 6.6 1.4
13 Marcus Smart WSH 9.1 2.4 2.8
14 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.6 6.7 1.5
15 Alec Burks MIA 8.5 2.6 1.5
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 3.8 2.1
17 Terry Rozier MIA 7.3 2.7 1.9
18 Kyle Anderson MIA 7.0 3.4 2.9
19 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.5 3.3 2.0
20 Jaylen Martin WSH 5.7 3.0 1.1
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.5 2.1 1.2
22 Josh Christopher MIA 3.6 1.6 0.9
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.4 1.5 0.6
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 2.5 0.6
25 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.1 1.6 2.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.