NBA games

LAC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
9687
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2223242796
ORL2819192187

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home ORL
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 34 21 4 1
Kawhi Leonard S 39 21 8 2
James Harden S 40 20 3 5
Ivica Zubac S 38 18 20 5
Kris Dunn S 26 6 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 19 5 3 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 20 5 2 0
Drew Eubanks 3 0 0 0
Nicolas Batum 21 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 26 6 4
Franz Wagner S 40 21 5 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 11 3 0
Cory Joseph S 29 10 5 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 9 4 1
Anthony Black 19 8 1 2
Caleb Houstan 17 2 3 0
Tristan da Silva 4 0 0 0
Goga Bitadze 13 0 1 1
Gary Harris 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Norman Powell LAC
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
7 James Harden LAC
7%
8 Cory Joseph ORL
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
21%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 28.9 7.6 5.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.8 6.9 3.9
3 James Harden LAC 24.0 6.0 8.0
4 Franz Wagner ORL 23.7 6.4 5.4
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.3 11.3 2.8
6 Norman Powell LAC 16.5 2.7 2.2
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.0 3.7 3.5
8 Anthony Black ORL 12.0 3.9 2.9
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.3 6.6 1.3
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.8 0.8
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.5 3.0 1.8
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.5 3.0 1.9
13 Cory Joseph ORL 7.0 2.9 2.6
14 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.9 1.6 1.0
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.5 3.1 1.1
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 3.8 1.3
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.1 1.9 0.9
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 2.3 0.7
19 Gary Harris ORL 3.6 2.0 1.0
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 1.3 0.7
21 Patty Mills LAC 3.2 0.9 0.6
22 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.0 2.8 0.5
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.1 1.2 0.5
24 Cam Christie LAC 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.