NBA games

SAC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
109–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC28322623109
IND27272730111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home IND
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 31 3 8
Domantas Sabonis S 40 25 16 0
Zach LaVine S 38 20 5 2
Keegan Murray S 36 12 7 0
Keon Ellis S 27 9 3 4
Malik Monk 29 5 7 7
Trey Lyles 15 3 0 0
Markelle Fultz 5 2 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 8 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 35 24 6 0
Obi Toppin 22 19 7 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 18 2 11
Jarace Walker 22 15 0 2
Pascal Siakam S 32 11 3 6
T.J. McConnell 21 8 2 4
Thomas Bryant S 22 7 7 1
Andrew Nembhard S 31 5 7 2
Tony Bradley 8 4 3 0
Ben Sheppard 14 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Thomas Bryant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Thomas Bryant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.1 3.7 5.6
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.9 3.9 10.9
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.5 6.3 4.5
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.6 4.0 5.2
5 Zach LaVine SAC 19.2 3.4 3.8
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.0 4.1 1.8
7 Obi Toppin IND 13.9 4.3 2.3
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.1 6.1 1.5
9 Domantas Sabonis SAC 12.8 10.5 5.2
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.2 3.7 5.3
11 Keon Ellis SAC 11.0 2.8 2.8
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.9 4.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.7 4.4 1.3
14 Jarace Walker IND 6.5 2.1 1.6
15 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 6.2 5.7 1.1
16 Thomas Bryant IND 5.7 3.2 0.7
17 Ben Sheppard IND 4.9 3.4 1.5
18 Tony Bradley IND 4.5 2.2 0.7
19 Quenton Jackson IND 3.9 1.4 1.7
20 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.6 1.3 1.1
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.6 1.9 0.6
22 Isaac Jones SAC 3.4 1.5 0.5
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.2 0.9 0.5
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.8 1.6 0.7
25 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.2 1.1 0.4
26 Mason Jones SAC 2.0 0.9 0.7
27 Enrique Freeman IND 1.9 0.9 0.5
28 James Johnson IND 1.7 0.7 0.5
29 RayJ Dennis IND 1.7 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.