NBA games

UTAH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
106–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21263128106
CHA28262630110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home CHA
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George 32 20 4 4
Brice Sensabaugh S 26 19 1 5
Isaiah Collier S 32 17 2 7
Kyle Filipowski S 33 14 13 2
Johnny Juzang S 19 12 2 0
Jaden Springer 27 11 4 2
Oscar Tshiebwe 24 6 11 1
KJ Martin S 29 5 2 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 17 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 35 26 10 8
Mark Williams S 34 18 13 1
Josh Green S 26 14 2 3
Tidjane Salaun 25 12 4 2
KJ Simpson S 32 10 8 6
DaQuan Jeffries 18 10 4 1
Seth Curry S 26 7 2 5
Jusuf Nurkic 11 6 2 1
Moussa Diabate 9 4 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. 20 3 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Mark Williams makes layup (Josh Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
5 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
6 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH
8%
7 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
7%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
7%
10 Josh Green CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
33%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
14%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 21.1 7.2 5.3
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.7 3.3 5.4
3 Keyonte George UTAH 17.6 3.9 5.1
4 Mark Williams CHA 17.1 11.7 3.9
5 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 15.3 3.1 3.5
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 13.8 6.9 2.3
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.7 4.2 6.2
8 Grant Williams CHA 13.4 6.3 2.4
9 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 12.5 3.5 1.8
10 KJ Simpson CHA 12.1 3.8 4.2
11 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.7 3.2 1.6
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.7 10.7 2.2
13 Johnny Juzang UTAH 9.6 3.0 1.6
14 Josh Green CHA 8.8 2.6 2.2
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.9 5.3 1.7
16 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.8 5.6 2.0
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.4 2.1 1.9
18 Seth Curry CHA 6.4 1.5 1.5
19 Cody Williams UTAH 6.3 2.6 1.3
20 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.9 4.1 0.8
21 KJ Martin UTAH 5.8 2.7 1.6
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 5.8 7.0 0.8
23 Taj Gibson CHA 5.3 3.8 0.8
24 Jaden Springer UTAH 3.7 1.7 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.