NBA games

HOU @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
148–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU32463436148
PHX24252436109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHX
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 27 33 2 2
Alperen Sengun S 26 16 9 3
Fred VanVleet S 28 13 2 7
Cam Whitmore 13 13 2 2
Amen Thompson S 25 12 10 9
Jock Landale 16 11 1 2
Aaron Holiday 21 11 2 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 26 10 7 2
Dillon Brooks S 11 8 1 1
Steven Adams 12 6 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 31 28 3 3
Kevin Durant S 23 11 7 1
Monte Morris 10 10 2 2
Mason Plumlee 12 9 6 3
Grayson Allen 18 7 0 2
Bol Bol 9 7 0 1
Royce O'Neale 15 6 3 3
Damion Lee 8 6 0 1
Nick Richards S 19 6 5 0
Tyus Jones 15 5 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Devin Booker makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
15%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
5 Nick Richards PHX
9%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
6%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
46%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.3 5.6 4.4
2 Jalen Green HOU 24.0 6.3 5.4
3 Devin Booker PHX 22.9 4.3 8.0
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.8 10.8 5.0
5 Amen Thompson HOU 17.2 9.3 4.6
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.3 3.2 2.7
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 5.8 1.7
8 Tari Eason HOU 13.2 7.0 1.8
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.7 3.6 4.5
10 Nick Richards PHX 11.3 6.6 1.0
11 Tyus Jones PHX 10.6 2.7 3.6
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.3 4.5 1.0
13 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.4 2.1 2.7
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.8 4.3 2.2
15 Grayson Allen PHX 7.5 1.9 1.8
16 Collin Gillespie PHX 6.4 2.9 3.2
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.2 4.7 1.6
18 Bol Bol PHX 5.9 2.8 0.9
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.6 5.4 1.0
20 Steven Adams HOU 5.4 6.9 1.4
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.1 1.4 1.1
22 Cody Martin PHX 5.0 3.5 1.6
23 Cam Whitmore HOU 3.8 1.4 0.8
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.6 1.1 1.1
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.1 0.6
26 Monte Morris PHX 3.4 1.0 1.2
27 Damion Lee PHX 3.2 1.0 0.5
28 Jeff Green HOU 3.0 1.4 0.5
29 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.