NBA games

TOR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
127–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32313232127
PHI31183327109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHI
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 29 31 5 5
Ja'Kobe Walter S 34 17 8 4
Jamison Battle 25 16 7 1
Orlando Robinson S 23 13 4 4
Jonathan Mogbo 25 13 5 3
Jamal Shead S 28 11 2 9
Scottie Barnes S 28 9 5 4
Ochai Agbaji 25 9 3 2
Cole Swider 18 8 4 0
A.J. Lawson 5 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lonnie Walker IV S 36 23 3 7
Jalen Hood-Schifino 27 18 2 5
Ricky Council IV S 36 17 11 3
Jared Butler S 27 15 1 6
Adem Bona S 27 14 8 0
Justin Edwards S 28 12 7 4
Marcus Bagley 26 4 7 0
Phillip Wheeler 13 4 1 0
Alex Reese 21 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja'Kobe Walter · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Quentin Grimes PHI
12%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Adem Bona PHI
10%
6 Justin Edwards PHI
10%
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
8 Jared Butler PHI
8%
9 Jamison Battle TOR
8%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Quentin Grimes PHI 27.6 4.8 5.9
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.8 6.5 6.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.4 7.6 6.1
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.1 3.7 2.0
5 Justin Edwards PHI 15.7 4.0 2.3
6 Orlando Robinson TOR 13.9 8.9 3.0
7 Jared Butler PHI 13.5 3.1 5.2
8 A.J. Lawson TOR 12.8 4.6 1.8
9 Ricky Council IV PHI 12.7 4.9 2.0
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.8 6.3 2.5
11 Jamal Shead TOR 11.7 3.3 5.1
12 Jamison Battle TOR 11.2 4.1 1.4
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.4 4.0 1.9
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.2 3.9 1.6
15 Adem Bona PHI 9.2 7.0 1.2
16 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 9.2 3.2 2.2
17 Oshae Brissett PHI 8.9 3.4 1.0
18 Chris Boucher TOR 8.5 4.7 1.1
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 8.1 6.5 2.1
20 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 7.2 2.3 2.3
21 Cole Swider TOR 6.7 2.6 1.1
22 Marcus Bagley PHI 4.6 4.3 0.7
23 Alex Reese PHI 4.2 2.9 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.9 1.5 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.