NBA games

GS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
148–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS44244337148
SA27172933106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SA
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 27 27 6 5
Moses Moody S 25 20 3 3
Buddy Hield 25 19 5 4
Draymond Green S 21 14 5 2
Jimmy Butler III S 24 13 3 8
Stephen Curry S 26 13 3 6
Kevon Looney 13 8 7 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 9 8 3 2
Quinten Post 18 7 2 1
Kevin Knox II 13 6 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 21 19 3 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 14 11 4
Malaki Branham 13 13 1 3
Devin Vassell S 20 12 3 3
Julian Champagnie 27 11 5 2
Jordan McLaughlin 21 9 1 4
Stephon Castle S 22 9 3 2
Chris Paul S 18 6 1 4
Harrison Barnes S 18 6 1 3
Blake Wesley 27 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jimmy Butler III makes 2-foot dunk (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
4 Stephen Curry GS
9%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
8%
7 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
8 Moses Moody GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.0 4.4 6.2
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.5 4.5 5.5
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.9 8.1 7.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.6 5.5 3.5
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.6 4.4 3.2
6 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 5.7 2.4
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.7 5.4 2.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.7 5.9 2.2
9 Moses Moody GS 13.1 3.5 2.4
10 Draymond Green GS 11.9 6.3 5.3
11 Harrison Barnes SA 11.0 3.0 1.6
12 Buddy Hield GS 9.8 3.3 2.3
13 Quinten Post GS 9.3 4.0 1.6
14 Chris Paul SA 9.2 3.3 5.4
15 Julian Champagnie SA 8.2 3.6 1.8
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 7.9 3.7 1.1
17 Gui Santos GS 6.4 3.7 1.2
18 Blake Wesley SA 6.1 1.9 1.9
19 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.0 4.5 1.3
20 Charles Bassey SA 4.8 4.8 0.7
21 Kevin Knox II GS 4.5 2.3 0.8
22 Kevon Looney GS 4.2 4.3 0.9
23 Pat Spencer GS 3.3 1.9 0.6
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.5 1.6 0.5
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.2 0.5 0.8
26 Malaki Branham SA 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.