NBA games

CHA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
94–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2527212194
NO2122312498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NO
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 22 20 6 2
Nick Smith Jr. 35 19 4 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 22 13 12 5
KJ Simpson S 35 9 3 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 24 8 5 0
Josh Okogie S 11 6 2 1
Moussa Diabate 17 6 7 0
DaQuan Jeffries S 30 5 3 2
Tidjane Salaun 29 4 7 4
Taj Gibson 15 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keion Brooks Jr. 26 17 8 2
Antonio Reeves S 28 16 3 2
Kelly Olynyk S 20 13 6 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 24 12 3 0
Jose Alvarado S 30 12 5 4
Karlo Matkovic 23 10 5 3
Yves Missi S 24 8 11 2
Lester Quinones 12 5 1 1
Bruce Brown S 31 3 12 2
Elfrid Payton 19 2 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DaQuan Jeffries · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"DaQuan Jeffries makes 1-foot layup (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
21%
2 Yves Missi NO
13%
3 Jose Alvarado NO
10%
4 Kelly Olynyk NO
10%
5 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
10%
6 Jordan Hawkins NO
9%
7 Bruce Brown NO
9%
8 Grant Williams CHA
9%
9 KJ Simpson CHA
8%
10 Taj Gibson CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 21.4 7.4 5.1
2 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.8 2.8 3.1
3 Grant Williams CHA 12.7 6.0 2.2
4 KJ Simpson CHA 11.8 3.4 3.7
5 Kelly Olynyk NO 11.5 5.5 4.5
6 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 11.4 3.3 1.5
7 Yves Missi NO 11.0 7.8 1.5
8 Jose Alvarado NO 11.0 2.5 5.4
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.8 3.5 1.7
10 Bruce Brown NO 10.6 3.3 2.7
11 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.6 6.4 1.5
12 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 7.5 4.0 1.9
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.4 4.6 1.4
14 Josh Okogie CHA 6.8 2.5 1.3
15 Antonio Reeves NO 6.8 1.7 1.0
16 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 6.4 4.3 1.5
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.8 4.5 0.9
18 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 5.6 2.3 0.9
19 Elfrid Payton NO 5.1 2.9 4.7
20 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 4.8 2.9 1.1
21 Lester Quinones NO 3.8 1.3 0.6
22 Taj Gibson CHA 3.3 3.1 0.4
23 Jamal Cain NO 2.5 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.