NBA games

DET @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
104–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET34262321104
MIN20343831123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIN
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 38 27 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 20 4 0
Ausar Thompson S 34 14 4 1
Jalen Duren S 26 13 11 3
Dennis Schroder S 33 11 4 11
Daniss Jenkins 2 5 0 0
Ronald Holland II 7 4 2 1
Paul Reed 14 4 3 0
Simone Fontecchio 25 3 5 1
Marcus Sasser 6 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 32 26 8 5
Anthony Edwards S 36 25 6 4
Rudy Gobert S 38 19 25 0
Mike Conley S 30 17 2 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 11 2 4
Donte DiVincenzo 10 6 3 3
Jaylen Clark 18 6 2 0
Josh Minott 2 5 0 0
Luka Garza 2 4 0 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 2 9 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
59%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 4.6 4.9
2 Julius Randle MIN 20.0 5.8 5.4
3 Jalen Duren DET 14.9 9.7 2.2
4 Tobias Harris DET 14.0 6.6 1.9
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.4 5.5 2.5
6 Naz Reid MIN 13.4 5.7 3.1
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.1 4.0 3.8
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.6 10.4 1.9
9 Malik Beasley DET 12.3 2.8 2.4
10 Dennis Schroder DET 12.2 2.7 5.2
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.5 2.7 1.5
12 Mike Conley MIN 10.5 3.0 4.1
13 Ausar Thompson DET 9.4 5.0 1.8
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.7 3.5 2.2
15 Ronald Holland II DET 8.3 3.4 1.8
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.6 4.9 1.5
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.4 1.3 1.6
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.0 2.4 1.0
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 1.7 0.9
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.6 1.5 0.9
21 Luka Garza MIN 3.1 0.9 0.4
22 Jesse Edwards MIN 2.7 1.2 0.4
23 Paul Reed DET 2.6 2.1 0.5
24 Lindy Waters III DET 2.2 0.6 0.4
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.1 0.9 0.8
26 Josh Minott MIN 1.8 0.9 0.4
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.8 0.7 1.1
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.4 0.7 0.3
29 Bobi Klintman DET 0.9 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.