NBA games

ATL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
145–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37453627145
MIL44311732124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIL
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zaccharie Risacher S 35 36 6 0
Dyson Daniels S 34 22 9 6
Trae Young S 37 19 3 19
Georges Niang 15 17 1 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 13 10 3
Caris LeVert 23 9 3 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 19 9 9 1
Terance Mann 14 9 1 4
Dominick Barlow 18 8 2 1
Vit Krejci 16 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 31 9 5
Kevin Porter Jr. 23 28 4 5
Kyle Kuzma S 35 25 6 1
Ryan Rollins S 28 10 4 5
Gary Trent Jr. 29 10 3 0
Taurean Prince S 26 7 4 0
Pat Connaughton 18 6 1 3
Brook Lopez S 30 5 1 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 11 1 3 1
Chris Livingston 2 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Trae Young makes 24-foot three point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
9%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL
7%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.9 11.0 6.6
2 Trae Young ATL 27.5 4.1 12.6
3 Brook Lopez MIL 18.2 5.5 2.6
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.9 10.2 4.4
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.1 10.1 2.5
6 Caris LeVert ATL 15.6 3.6 3.3
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.7 4.2 1.7
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.7 7.0 5.8
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.7 5.0 2.7
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 13.6 2.4 1.5
11 Terance Mann ATL 11.4 3.5 1.8
12 Georges Niang ATL 10.4 2.7 1.8
13 Taurean Prince MIL 10.2 3.1 2.1
14 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 10.1 3.6 3.3
15 Ryan Rollins MIL 8.5 2.6 2.2
16 Vit Krejci ATL 6.9 2.5 2.5
17 Dominick Barlow ATL 5.4 3.7 0.8
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.8 3.3 0.8
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.8 0.5
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.0 2.0 1.2
21 Tyler Smith MIL 3.4 1.6 0.7
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.1 0.5
23 Pete Nance MIL 1.9 0.9 0.4
24 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.