NBA games

POR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
93–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2533201593
NY27232931110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NY
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 41 33 7 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 39 23 7 3
Toumani Camara S 39 16 8 4
Anfernee Simons S 35 15 3 4
Duop Reath 14 4 1 0
Donovan Clingan S 33 2 10 0
Kris Murray 5 0 1 0
Jabari Walker 1 0 0 0
Rayan Rupert 1 0 0 0
Justin Minaya 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 40 28 2 7
OG Anunoby S 37 28 7 2
Josh Hart S 38 14 8 9
Landry Shamet 19 11 4 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 10 11 2
Precious Achiuwa 11 10 2 0
Delon Wright S 35 7 4 2
Mitchell Robinson 14 2 4 2
Pacome Dadiet 1 0 0 0
Tyler Kolek 14 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
3 OG Anunoby NY
8%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
7 Jerami Grant POR
7%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Miles McBride NY
6%
10 Deni Avdija POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.6 10.0 4.2
2 Deni Avdija POR 23.4 9.7 5.0
3 OG Anunoby NY 23.4 4.9 3.1
4 Mikal Bridges NY 23.4 4.2 5.6
5 Anfernee Simons POR 20.5 3.1 4.2
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.0 5.9 3.1
7 Deandre Ayton POR 17.4 10.7 2.2
8 Scoot Henderson POR 13.7 3.3 4.3
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.1 4.8 2.6
10 Josh Hart NY 11.9 8.1 6.4
11 Jerami Grant POR 11.0 3.3 1.9
12 Miles McBride NY 9.7 2.7 4.1
13 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 9.2 1.7
14 Duop Reath POR 8.3 3.9 1.2
15 Cameron Payne NY 7.1 1.9 3.0
16 Landry Shamet NY 6.8 2.0 1.0
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.9 2.9 1.2
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.6 5.9 0.8
19 Jabari Walker POR 5.3 3.4 0.7
20 Kris Murray POR 3.9 3.3 1.0
21 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.7 2.6 0.7
22 Dalano Banton POR 3.6 1.8 1.5
23 Delon Wright NY 3.4 1.6 1.4
24 Tyler Kolek NY 3.3 1.1 2.8
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.2 0.5
26 Justin Minaya POR 2.1 0.9 0.4
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.