NBA games

LAC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
122–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC25392434122
CLE37313722127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CLE
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 39 34 1 4
James Harden S 35 24 8 8
Bogdan Bogdanovic 30 16 4 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 15 3 2
Ivica Zubac S 37 14 13 2
Kris Dunn S 29 13 5 0
Ben Simmons 20 4 6 5
Nicolas Batum 16 1 3 1
Amir Coffey 4 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 31 25 12 3
Donovan Mitchell S 37 24 12 7
Evan Mobley S 37 22 7 4
Darius Garland S 32 19 4 7
Isaac Okoro 11 11 0 0
De'Andre Hunter 21 10 1 3
Sam Merrill 22 6 4 2
Dean Wade 20 5 2 1
Max Strus S 24 3 3 6
Javonte Green 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
17%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Norman Powell LAC
9%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
29%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.8 6.0 8.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.2 4.8 6.2
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 21.6 11.6 3.1
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.0 4.8 7.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.0 8.7 3.6
6 Norman Powell LAC 16.1 2.9 2.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.0 8.2 1.7
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.5 3.9 4.0
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.8 3.7 1.5
10 Max Strus CLE 11.6 4.0 2.7
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.4 3.9 1.0
12 Amir Coffey LAC 7.4 2.1 1.2
13 Kris Dunn LAC 7.3 3.1 2.5
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.8 2.8 1.8
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.3 3.4 1.2
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 3.0 1.0
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.0 2.3 1.2
18 Ben Simmons LAC 4.8 4.0 2.8
19 Javonte Green CLE 4.1 2.3 0.9
20 Patty Mills LAC 3.8 1.3 0.7
21 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.5 3.2 0.7
22 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.3 1.9 0.6
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.1 1.6 1.3
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.6 0.7
25 Luke Travers CLE 2.4 1.5 0.7
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.4 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.