NBA games

BOS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
121–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS36283027121
SA27252930111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home SA
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 36 29 10 8
Jrue Holiday S 35 21 6 6
Luke Kornet 31 15 16 4
Jaylen Brown S 30 14 2 4
Derrick White S 40 13 8 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 11 8 1
Sam Hauser 24 11 2 1
Baylor Scheierman 19 7 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 34 23 6 3
Stephon Castle S 30 22 2 8
Jeremy Sochan S 31 18 8 3
Devin Vassell S 38 14 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 24 13 3 2
Chris Paul S 35 12 5 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 6 2 0
Blake Wesley 16 3 3 0
Julian Champagnie 16 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
12%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
6 Bismack Biyombo SA
9%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
9%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
38%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 30.4 8.6 7.1
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.1 5.5 4.8
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.2 6.8 2.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 20.1 5.2 3.4
5 Stephon Castle SA 19.5 4.6 5.1
6 Derrick White BOS 16.8 4.9 6.5
7 Keldon Johnson SA 13.5 5.5 2.0
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.0 3.4 1.6
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.9 5.1 1.9
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.8 3.9 4.8
11 Sam Hauser BOS 10.7 3.3 1.1
12 Chris Paul SA 8.1 3.0 5.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 7.9 3.5 1.7
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 7.6 3.7 1.1
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.5 5.7 1.0
16 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.0 2.3 1.5
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.9 1.7 2.2
18 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.2 4.6 1.3
19 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 4.6 0.9
20 Torrey Craig BOS 3.9 2.1 0.7
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.9 1.8 0.7
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 0.5 0.8
23 Malaki Branham SA 2.1 0.8 0.3
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.