NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
111–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27223131111
OKC29324130132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 29 18 4 3
Andrew Nembhard S 30 16 5 7
Obi Toppin 22 12 3 5
Myles Turner S 20 11 5 1
Pascal Siakam S 27 11 9 1
Jarace Walker 27 10 4 4
Ben Sheppard 22 10 4 2
T.J. McConnell 13 8 1 3
Aaron Nesmith S 22 7 4 0
Thomas Bryant 12 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 31 33 7 8
Luguentz Dort S 33 22 5 0
Isaiah Joe 27 19 5 0
Jalen Williams S 29 18 2 6
Cason Wallace S 30 14 2 3
Kenrich Williams 27 10 8 5
Alex Caruso 19 6 5 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 14 4 5 1
Branden Carlson 13 4 3 0
Dillon Jones 13 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
13%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
5 Myles Turner IND
12%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Obi Toppin IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
31%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 4.6 7.3
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.7 5.1 6.3
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.6 3.6 9.6
4 Pascal Siakam IND 21.2 5.3 4.4
5 Myles Turner IND 14.7 6.7 1.7
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.2 10.1 3.3
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.8 4.0 1.7
8 Obi Toppin IND 11.3 3.7 1.7
9 Cason Wallace OKC 11.3 3.7 2.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 3.2 4.8
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 4.2 1.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.4 2.8 1.8
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.5 3.1 2.1
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.1 6.0 2.7
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.8 2.9 4.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.9 3.4 1.6
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.8 2.2 1.2
18 Thomas Bryant IND 5.2 3.2 0.6
19 Tony Bradley IND 4.0 2.1 0.6
20 Ben Sheppard IND 4.0 2.8 1.3
21 Branden Carlson OKC 3.6 1.6 0.5
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.5 1.6 0.9
23 Quenton Jackson IND 3.4 1.2 1.6
24 Adam Flagler OKC 2.8 1.4 0.8
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.5 0.5
26 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.