NBA games

LAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
134–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL39333032134
MEM28333828127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MEM
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 37 31 7 8
Luka Doncic S 38 29 8 9
LeBron James S 37 25 6 8
Gabe Vincent 23 15 2 1
Rui Hachimura S 28 13 3 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 35 11 5 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 6 4 1
Dalton Knecht 5 2 1 2
Jaxson Hayes S 17 2 5 0
Jordan Goodwin 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 33 29 4 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 24 4 1
Ja Morant S 31 22 8 10
Scotty Pippen Jr. 18 16 3 5
Zach Edey S 27 14 11 2
Jaylen Wells S 24 11 3 3
Santi Aldama 26 8 5 2
Vince Williams Jr. 18 3 3 2
Luke Kennard 21 0 0 2
Lamar Stevens 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
14%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.0 8.7 7.9
2 Ja Morant MEM 27.6 4.0 7.9
3 Austin Reaves LAL 25.9 5.2 6.5
4 LeBron James LAL 25.2 10.1 7.2
5 Desmond Bane MEM 20.9 5.8 6.2
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.2 4.2 2.2
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.5 4.2 5.9
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.9 5.7 4.0
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 4.6 1.5
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL 11.6 6.8 1.6
11 Luke Kennard MEM 10.8 3.0 3.9
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.2 3.7 1.5
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.2 2.1 1.4
14 Zach Edey MEM 8.8 6.8 1.2
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.5 2.5 1.4
16 Jaylen Wells MEM 8.1 3.5 1.9
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.5 3.3 1.9
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 6.7 3.8 1.8
19 Jay Huff MEM 6.4 2.7 0.9
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.0 3.4 1.6
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.5 2.9 0.8
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.5 2.3 1.0
23 Cam Spencer MEM 4.3 1.3 1.0
24 John Konchar MEM 3.9 2.8 0.9
25 Shake Milton LAL 3.6 1.5 0.9
26 Bronny James LAL 3.6 1.0 0.8
27 Markieff Morris LAL 3.4 1.2 0.9
28 Marvin Bagley III MEM 2.7 1.9 0.4
29 Christian Koloko LAL 2.6 2.4 0.6
30 Alex Len LAL 2.1 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.