NBA games

DAL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
120–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL30283131120
CHI34213232119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CHI
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 30 20 1 1
P.J. Washington S 32 19 7 2
Anthony Davis S 30 18 7 5
Kai Jones S 31 15 7 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 36 14 8 11
Naji Marshall 27 14 7 2
Brandon Williams 16 12 1 3
Jaden Hardy 9 6 0 0
Caleb Martin 6 2 2 0
Max Christie 14 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 38 28 9 6
Nikola Vucevic S 30 25 9 5
Coby White S 35 25 11 2
Zach Collins 18 13 7 2
Kevin Huerter S 32 8 3 6
Josh Giddey S 27 8 8 4
Dalen Terry 26 8 5 4
Julian Phillips 16 4 2 1
Patrick Williams 18 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
11%
2 Coby White CHI
10%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
5 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
7 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
10 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 27.1 4.4 5.3
2 Josh Giddey CHI 25.0 9.9 10.0
3 Naji Marshall DAL 23.5 6.5 4.4
4 Anthony Davis DAL 23.1 11.1 3.4
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 19.2 3.8 6.5
6 Brandon Williams DAL 19.1 4.0 5.3
7 P.J. Washington DAL 18.3 6.5 2.2
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 16.6 4.4 3.7
9 Klay Thompson DAL 15.5 4.2 2.4
10 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.5 8.5 3.3
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.3 9.9 2.3
12 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.1 4.0 1.6
13 Max Christie DAL 10.8 4.5 2.4
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.8 1.9 1.5
15 Caleb Martin DAL 7.7 3.7 2.2
16 Zach Collins CHI 7.5 5.7 1.8
17 Kai Jones DAL 7.4 5.0 0.8
18 Patrick Williams CHI 7.3 3.1 1.9
19 Dalen Terry CHI 6.0 2.2 1.5
20 Jalen Smith CHI 5.6 5.4 1.1
21 Julian Phillips CHI 5.4 2.6 1.1
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.9 3.2 1.6
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.4 1.3 1.2
24 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.2 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.