NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
118–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA34283422118
PHI2924222095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 30 3 7
Alec Burks S 20 20 3 0
Bam Adebayo S 28 16 7 5
Pelle Larsson S 30 14 6 4
Kel'el Ware S 31 13 14 2
Haywood Highsmith 33 13 6 3
Kyle Anderson 20 6 4 2
Davion Mitchell 32 6 1 8
Keshad Johnson 2 0 1 0
Josh Christopher 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared Butler S 30 19 2 10
Justin Edwards S 35 17 3 3
Adem Bona S 30 16 10 1
Quentin Grimes S 30 15 4 3
Ricky Council IV 27 13 6 4
Lonnie Walker IV 21 10 1 2
Marcus Bagley 18 2 5 0
Jalen Hood-Schifino 13 2 0 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 30 1 5 3
Phillip Wheeler 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Adem Bona · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Adem Bona makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jared Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
2 Quentin Grimes PHI
10%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
6 Justin Edwards PHI
9%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
8 Ricky Council IV PHI
8%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Quentin Grimes PHI 26.2 4.9 5.8
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.9 4.7 5.7
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 24.0 4.6 4.6
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.2 8.3 5.0
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI 19.2 2.9 5.7
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.5 3.7 1.9
7 Justin Edwards PHI 14.6 4.1 2.1
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.7 3.7 4.7
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.3 9.7 1.6
10 Jared Butler PHI 12.3 3.0 4.7
11 Ricky Council IV PHI 12.2 4.7 2.0
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 12.1 6.0 2.5
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.9 2.2 1.7
14 Oshae Brissett PHI 9.2 3.4 1.0
15 Alec Burks MIA 8.5 2.5 1.5
16 Adem Bona PHI 7.7 6.1 1.0
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 3.7 2.2
18 Kyle Anderson MIA 7.3 3.1 2.8
19 Terry Rozier MIA 7.2 2.3 1.8
20 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 7.0 2.7 1.4
21 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.7 3.5 2.1
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 6.7 1.8 2.4
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.4 1.8 1.1
24 Josh Christopher MIA 4.6 1.8 1.2
25 Isaiah Stevens MIA 4.6 2.1 2.8
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 2.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.