NBA games

BKN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
115–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN23283133115
WSH28312627112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home WSH
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Martin S 31 20 5 4
Jalen Wilson 23 20 7 3
Drew Timme 29 19 6 3
Cameron Johnson S 24 18 9 7
Keon Johnson S 31 15 4 3
Noah Clowney S 19 13 5 1
Trendon Watford 24 7 2 1
Maxwell Lewis 17 3 4 0
Dariq Whitehead 17 0 4 1
Ziaire Williams S 25 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
AJ Johnson S 42 20 1 4
Colby Jones 29 20 2 4
Jaylen Martin 30 13 6 3
Jordan Poole S 21 12 2 4
Alex Sarr S 25 12 4 1
Bub Carrington S 22 10 3 2
Justin Champagnie S 17 9 9 1
Tristan Vukcevic 24 8 6 0
JT Thor 23 5 6 0
Marcus Smart 7 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bub Carrington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Bub Carrington makes 17-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
17%
2 Cameron Johnson BKN
16%
3 Bub Carrington WSH
13%
4 Keon Johnson BKN
12%
5 Justin Champagnie WSH
11%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
11%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
9%
9 Tyrese Martin BKN
0%
10 Trendon Watford BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
22%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.2 5.3 5.9
2 Alex Sarr WSH 19.6 6.6 2.9
3 Jordan Poole WSH 17.2 2.9 4.1
4 Ziaire Williams BKN 13.0 4.6 1.9
5 Keon Johnson BKN 12.8 4.2 2.9
6 Trendon Watford BKN 12.8 4.1 3.9
7 Bub Carrington WSH 11.0 4.4 4.8
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.2 6.8 1.5
9 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 10.1 4.1 2.0
10 AJ Johnson WSH 10.1 3.2 3.3
11 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.1 4.7 1.5
12 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.0 3.5 3.3
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 9.4 7.2 1.8
14 Marcus Smart WSH 9.1 2.4 3.0
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.3 2.8 1.4
16 Noah Clowney BKN 8.2 3.7 1.4
17 Maxwell Lewis BKN 6.2 2.7 1.1
18 Colby Jones WSH 6.1 2.8 1.6
19 Jaylen Martin WSH 5.3 2.6 1.1
20 Dariq Whitehead BKN 5.1 1.5 0.7
21 Anthony Gill WSH 4.7 1.9 0.9
22 Reece Beekman BKN 4.0 1.7 0.9
23 JT Thor WSH 3.0 2.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.