NBA games

SAC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
91–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2125202591
ORL38233723121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home ORL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 29 21 4 1
Domantas Sabonis S 29 14 13 4
Zach LaVine S 29 10 2 3
Keegan Murray S 30 9 3 0
Malik Monk 23 9 2 2
Doug McDermott 13 8 0 0
Markelle Fultz 14 6 3 4
Isaac Jones 10 6 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 11 4 4 0
Trey Lyles 25 4 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 29 24 6 6
Franz Wagner S 24 21 2 3
Caleb Houstan 25 18 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 17 12 4 0
Goga Bitadze 18 12 10 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 8 3 2
Anthony Black 25 8 4 2
Trevelin Queen 9 5 2 1
Jett Howard 7 3 2 0
Cory Joseph S 23 3 7 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Cory Joseph ORL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
15%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.7 7.8 5.2
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.1 6.9 5.8
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.3 3.5 5.7
4 Zach LaVine SAC 20.0 3.6 3.7
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.7 4.3 5.3
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 13.4 11.0 5.2
7 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 5.9 1.5
8 Anthony Black ORL 12.6 3.8 2.9
9 Keon Ellis SAC 11.7 3.1 2.8
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.1 6.9 1.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.5 3.1 1.9
12 Cory Joseph ORL 7.9 2.7 2.7
13 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 7.2 6.4 1.1
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.6 3.9 1.5
15 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.0 1.5 0.9
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.1 2.2 1.0
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.3 3.6 1.1
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.1 2.8 0.8
19 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 2.0 1.0
20 Gary Harris ORL 3.9 2.0 1.1
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.6 2.1 0.6
22 Isaac Jones SAC 3.4 1.7 0.5
23 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.2 1.2 0.8
24 Jett Howard ORL 2.9 1.0 0.7
25 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.5 1.3 0.6
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.3 1.2 0.4
27 Doug McDermott SAC 2.1 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.