NBA games

UTAH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
93–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH1532182893
DEN26312943129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DEN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 23 20 1 2
Keyonte George 35 18 4 4
Kyle Filipowski S 34 18 13 1
Brice Sensabaugh 22 12 5 1
Johnny Juzang 20 10 4 1
Oscar Tshiebwe S 26 7 10 1
Isaiah Collier S 32 3 3 7
Svi Mykhailiuk 8 3 1 0
Cody Williams S 23 2 1 2
KJ Martin 16 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 32 27 14 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 20 4 4
Russell Westbrook 24 17 2 7
Christian Braun S 28 16 4 2
DeAndre Jordan 12 11 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 17 10 1 1
Peyton Watson S 27 8 5 4
PJ Hall 5 7 3 0
Aaron Gordon S 26 6 5 5
Trey Alexander 5 4 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · Layup (2 pts) · 10:35 Q1
"Christian Braun makes two point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
18%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
14%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
14%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
5 Christian Braun DEN
13%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
10%
7 Cody Williams UTAH
8%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
9 Johnny Juzang UTAH
0%
10 Keyonte George UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
88%
Jumper
4%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.9 13.7 10.4
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.6 3.4 5.7
3 Aaron Gordon DEN 20.1 4.9 3.3
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.6 3.8 5.5
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.4 5.0 8.7
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.0 7.0 2.8
7 Christian Braun DEN 16.3 5.0 3.7
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.7 4.0 6.1
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.7 6.0 2.1
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 11.5 3.2 1.9
11 Peyton Watson DEN 11.2 4.5 1.6
12 Johnny Juzang UTAH 10.2 3.4 1.7
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.8 2.1 1.9
14 Cody Williams UTAH 6.6 2.8 1.2
15 KJ Martin UTAH 6.0 3.0 1.5
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.2 1.4 2.0
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.1 6.2 1.5
18 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 4.7 6.0 0.7
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.5 2.8 1.6
20 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.4 2.1 1.0
21 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.3 1.9 1.4
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.5 0.8
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.3 1.3 0.6
24 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.5 2.2 0.7
25 PJ Hall DEN 2.5 1.6 0.5
26 Spencer Jones DEN 2.4 1.4 0.4
27 Trey Alexander DEN 2.0 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.