NBA games

GS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
11195
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS21293328111
NO2825291395

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NO
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 23 4 6
Jimmy Butler III S 35 18 10 4
Jonathan Kuminga 23 16 8 3
Quinten Post 18 15 6 2
Buddy Hield 23 11 3 3
Brandin Podziemski S 31 10 6 2
Moses Moody S 20 7 1 1
Draymond Green S 26 6 5 6
Gui Santos 16 5 1 1
Kevin Knox II 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bruce Brown S 32 18 7 1
Yves Missi S 28 12 10 0
Keion Brooks Jr. 15 11 3 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 19 11 2 2
Jose Alvarado S 27 10 3 4
Karlo Matkovic 20 10 3 2
Jordan Hawkins S 27 8 5 1
Kelly Olynyk S 29 6 6 2
Antonio Reeves 19 5 2 1
Elfrid Payton 23 4 5 10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jose Alvarado · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jose Alvarado makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
2 Stephen Curry GS
10%
3 Yves Missi NO
10%
4 CJ McCollum NO
8%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
6 Kelly Olynyk NO
8%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 Keion Brooks Jr. NO
8%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
33%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.6 3.9 6.5
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.1 7.0 7.5
3 CJ McCollum NO 18.8 4.0 5.2
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.9 4.2 3.1
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.7 4.7 2.8
6 Moses Moody GS 12.3 3.5 2.4
7 Draymond Green GS 11.5 6.2 5.3
8 Kelly Olynyk NO 10.9 5.0 4.2
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.6 3.1 1.5
10 Jose Alvarado NO 10.4 2.5 5.5
11 Yves Missi NO 10.0 7.0 1.3
12 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.7 6.5 1.3
13 Bruce Brown NO 9.0 2.8 2.3
14 Buddy Hield GS 8.4 2.8 2.0
15 Quinten Post GS 8.1 3.8 1.5
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.1 3.3 1.4
17 Gui Santos GS 5.4 3.3 1.2
18 Antonio Reeves NO 5.0 1.1 0.6
19 Elfrid Payton NO 3.8 2.3 4.0
20 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 3.7 1.6 0.6
21 Mo Bamba NO 3.6 3.8 0.5
22 Lester Quinones NO 3.6 1.3 0.6
23 Kevin Knox II GS 3.5 1.7 0.7
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.4 3.6 0.8
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.3 1.5 0.6
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.2 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.