NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX21243034109
MIN27303532124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 34 23 6 2
Collin Gillespie S 26 22 5 10
Royce O'Neale 24 21 2 2
Devin Booker S 39 10 0 6
Ryan Dunn S 22 9 3 1
Tyus Jones 19 8 4 4
Oso Ighodaro 25 6 4 2
Cody Martin 16 4 4 1
Nick Richards S 23 3 4 0
Grayson Allen 12 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 32 25 6 8
Anthony Edwards S 28 20 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 38 17 13 1
Jaden McDaniels S 31 16 3 1
Mike Conley S 30 13 3 4
Donte DiVincenzo 25 13 2 5
Naz Reid 26 9 7 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 8 3 3
Jaylen Clark 10 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Richards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Nick Richards makes 13-foot jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Nick Richards PHX
9%
7 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
8 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Kevin Durant PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
41%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.4 5.8 5.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.7 4.4 5.0
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.1 4.7 8.0
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.9 6.0 5.5
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.8 5.8 2.7
6 Naz Reid MIN 13.4 5.8 2.9
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.7 4.2 3.5
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 9.7 1.7
9 Nick Richards PHX 11.4 7.3 1.1
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.8 2.7 3.6
11 Mike Conley MIN 9.1 2.7 3.6
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.9 4.7 1.0
13 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.7 2.3 2.7
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.5 3.4 2.0
15 Grayson Allen PHX 8.2 2.3 1.9
16 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.6 5.0 2.4
17 Bol Bol PHX 6.4 3.1 1.0
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.1 4.7 1.4
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 6.0 5.7 1.0
20 Cody Martin PHX 5.8 3.6 1.6
21 Collin Gillespie PHX 5.5 2.7 2.3
22 Monte Morris PHX 4.1 1.4 1.3
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.9 1.1 0.7
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.8 1.4 0.6
25 Luka Garza MIN 3.4 1.0 0.5
26 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.3 0.9 0.8
27 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 1.0 0.5
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.8 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.