NBA games

NY @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25352135116
MIL19302434107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 36 31 2 2
Mikal Bridges S 38 26 3 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 14 10 1
Landry Shamet 20 13 0 2
Josh Hart S 42 13 14 8
Delon Wright S 30 12 3 4
Tyler Kolek 17 5 0 5
Mitchell Robinson 18 2 10 1
Precious Achiuwa 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 30 9 7
Ryan Rollins S 34 20 5 4
Kyle Kuzma S 38 20 5 3
Gary Trent Jr. 34 14 1 0
AJ Green 26 8 2 0
Brook Lopez S 34 7 5 6
Tyler Smith 1 3 0 0
Taurean Prince S 26 3 3 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 14 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes driving layup (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
14%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
9%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.7 11.6 6.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.7 9.9 4.1
3 Mikal Bridges NY 22.7 4.2 5.3
4 OG Anunoby NY 21.2 5.4 3.0
5 Brook Lopez MIL 17.2 6.1 1.9
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.6 5.5 2.5
7 Josh Hart NY 11.8 9.6 6.0
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.7 2.4 1.5
9 Taurean Prince MIL 10.0 3.1 2.0
10 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.6 3.7 3.0
11 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.8 2.6 2.0
12 AJ Green MIL 6.3 2.2 2.0
13 Landry Shamet NY 6.1 2.1 0.8
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.1 5.2 0.6
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.4 2.3 1.1
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.2 3.0 0.7
17 MarJon Beauchamp NY 3.3 1.7 0.7
18 Tyler Kolek NY 3.0 1.0 2.5
19 Delon Wright NY 2.5 1.5 1.0
20 Anton Watson NY 2.5 1.2 0.6
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 1.1 0.5
22 Tyler Smith MIL 1.9 1.0 0.4
23 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.