NBA games

CHA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
97–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2027252597
TOR32173425108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home TOR
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 29 18 12 5
DaQuan Jeffries S 26 15 5 2
KJ Simpson S 25 14 2 3
Tidjane Salaun 24 12 14 1
Miles Bridges S 31 11 4 6
Moussa Diabate 13 9 6 0
Nick Smith Jr. 25 7 1 3
Josh Green S 23 5 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic 17 4 6 5
Seth Curry 26 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 26 24 12 3
Immanuel Quickley S 27 19 1 9
Scottie Barnes S 27 18 6 6
Jamal Shead 22 17 4 4
Ja'Kobe Walter S 30 11 2 1
Cole Swider 19 5 0 0
Jonathan Mogbo 25 5 5 2
Orlando Robinson 22 5 10 1
A.J. Lawson 9 2 1 0
Jamison Battle S 32 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DaQuan Jeffries · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"DaQuan Jeffries makes dunk (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
4 Mark Williams CHA
12%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
6 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
8%
7 Orlando Robinson TOR
7%
8 Josh Green CHA
7%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
10 Grant Williams CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
27%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 23.7 7.8 4.8
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.8 4.4 5.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.6 8.1 5.5
4 Mark Williams CHA 15.3 10.8 3.2
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.3 6.8 2.8
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.8 2.8 3.0
7 Orlando Robinson TOR 13.3 8.2 2.9
8 Grant Williams CHA 12.6 6.1 2.1
9 A.J. Lawson TOR 11.9 4.3 1.7
10 KJ Simpson CHA 11.3 3.4 3.5
11 Jamal Shead TOR 10.7 3.0 5.1
12 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 10.2 2.9 1.3
13 Jamison Battle TOR 9.7 4.0 1.1
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.5 3.6 1.7
15 Josh Green CHA 7.9 2.2 1.9
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 7.3 5.8 2.0
17 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 6.7 5.3 1.4
18 Chris Boucher TOR 6.1 3.6 0.8
19 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 4.0 1.2
20 Cole Swider TOR 5.6 2.5 0.9
21 Seth Curry CHA 5.3 1.2 1.1
22 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.4 4.0 0.8
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.5 3.3 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.1 1.2 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.