NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
122–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE26322539122
DET31323832133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 38 5 3
Darius Garland S 34 21 5 6
De'Andre Hunter 20 11 3 0
Dean Wade 19 10 2 1
Evan Mobley S 33 9 6 4
Craig Porter Jr. 21 9 5 2
Jarrett Allen S 19 8 4 0
Isaac Okoro S 25 7 3 0
Sam Merrill 20 6 4 0
Tristan Thompson 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 32 1 3
Malik Beasley S 36 19 4 4
Ausar Thompson S 32 18 10 2
Dennis Schroder S 39 17 7 10
Jalen Duren S 27 16 13 0
Isaiah Stewart 21 14 4 1
Ronald Holland II 19 10 2 1
Marcus Sasser 19 4 1 4
Simone Fontecchio 14 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes driving layup (Malik Beasley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Tobias Harris DET
11%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
8 Dennis Schroder DET
7%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
18%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.9 5.0 6.0
2 Darius Garland CLE 20.0 4.5 6.3
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.4 10.0 3.4
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.7 8.6 1.9
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.0 10.4 2.5
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.5 7.0 2.3
7 Malik Beasley DET 12.7 2.9 2.2
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.9 4.0 1.6
9 Dennis Schroder DET 11.8 2.3 4.7
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.3 2.9 1.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.0 4.6 1.7
12 Ronald Holland II DET 7.9 3.2 1.7
13 Sam Merrill CLE 7.0 2.8 1.7
14 Marcus Sasser DET 6.9 1.3 1.4
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.2 5.3 1.5
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.9 2.2 1.1
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.8 2.6 1.0
18 Dean Wade CLE 5.6 3.1 0.8
19 Javonte Green CLE 4.2 2.3 0.8
20 Paul Reed DET 3.4 2.5 0.8
21 Lindy Waters III DET 2.9 0.9 0.7
22 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.7 1.1 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.1 0.6
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 1.7 1.0 0.8
25 Bobi Klintman DET 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.