NBA games

POR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27233225107
SAC36323228128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 32 24 9 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 22 7 0
Anfernee Simons S 37 20 1 5
Duop Reath 28 17 5 1
Toumani Camara S 34 6 4 1
Matisse Thybulle 18 6 2 4
Scoot Henderson 24 6 0 6
Dalano Banton 6 4 0 2
Justin Minaya 2 2 0 0
Donovan Clingan S 18 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 37 29 2 0
Domantas Sabonis S 35 22 19 6
DeMar DeRozan S 37 21 2 10
Keegan Murray S 33 17 7 1
Malik Monk 17 16 3 2
Keon Ellis S 31 10 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas 11 6 6 1
Trey Lyles 14 3 1 0
Markelle Fultz 16 2 1 1
Isaac Jones 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 6-foot two point shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Malik Monk SAC
8%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
7%
7 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
8 Deni Avdija POR
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
16%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 23.3 9.7 6.0
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.3 3.9 6.0
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.9 3.2 4.6
4 Zach LaVine SAC 21.4 3.7 4.2
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.8 5.6 3.6
6 Malik Monk SAC 19.8 4.3 6.4
7 Deandre Ayton POR 18.2 10.7 2.5
8 Scoot Henderson POR 16.6 3.6 4.7
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.2 4.8 3.0
10 Domantas Sabonis SAC 13.2 11.2 5.6
11 Keegan Murray SAC 13.2 5.8 1.7
12 Keon Ellis SAC 11.9 2.9 2.9
13 Jerami Grant POR 11.8 3.4 2.1
14 Donovan Clingan POR 9.5 9.3 1.9
15 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 8.4 7.5 1.8
16 Duop Reath POR 7.8 3.8 1.4
17 Trey Lyles SAC 6.6 4.4 1.7
18 Jabari Walker POR 6.3 3.7 0.9
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.3 3.3 1.1
20 Devin Carter SAC 4.9 2.1 1.3
21 Dalano Banton POR 4.1 1.9 1.7
22 Jae Crowder SAC 3.9 2.1 0.7
23 Kris Murray POR 3.6 3.3 0.9
24 Isaac Jones SAC 3.6 1.7 0.7
25 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.2 1.2 0.9
26 Doug McDermott SAC 2.8 0.9 0.6
27 Terry Taylor SAC 2.3 1.0 0.8
28 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.3 1.1 0.6
29 Justin Minaya POR 1.6 0.7 0.4
30 Rayan Rupert POR 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.