NBA games

HOU @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
121–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27263632121
UTAH24272930110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home UTAH
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 32 33 10 2
Jalen Green S 35 21 8 6
Tari Eason 30 15 6 2
Amen Thompson S 28 15 10 5
Jabari Smith Jr. 26 11 10 1
Jock Landale 14 10 3 0
Dillon Brooks S 28 10 3 3
Fred VanVleet S 34 4 1 6
Aaron Holiday 12 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 32 21 1 5
Keyonte George 29 17 3 8
Brice Sensabaugh 24 17 4 0
Isaiah Collier S 31 16 1 5
Kyle Filipowski S 33 16 7 4
Johnny Juzang 21 11 2 1
KJ Martin 18 6 2 2
Cody Williams S 20 4 2 1
Walker Kessler S 26 2 9 2
Jaden Springer 5 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cody Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Cody Williams makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
5 Tari Eason HOU
9%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
7%
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
32%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 24.7 6.5 5.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.4 11.4 5.8
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.6 3.4 5.1
4 Amen Thompson HOU 18.3 9.9 4.9
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 18.1 3.3 3.1
6 Keyonte George UTAH 16.6 3.7 5.0
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.2 5.8 1.9
8 Tari Eason HOU 15.2 7.1 2.4
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.6 3.8 4.2
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.0 4.3 5.9
11 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.7 5.8 1.8
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.6 10.2 1.9
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.3 3.1 2.0
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.8 3.1 1.4
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.0 1.9 1.5
16 Steven Adams HOU 6.9 7.8 1.8
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.9 2.1 1.8
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.1 2.7 1.0
19 KJ Martin UTAH 5.9 2.8 1.4
20 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.3 1.6 0.9
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.1 1.3 1.2
22 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.1 2.0 0.9
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.6 2.2 0.5
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.7 0.6
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 2.3 0.7
26 Jaden Springer UTAH 2.6 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.