NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
104–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM33263015104
OKC32312834125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 27 2 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 31 17 10 7
Jaylen Wells S 28 13 5 0
Santi Aldama S 26 10 5 5
Luke Kennard 26 9 5 1
Jay Huff 18 8 2 1
Zach Edey 17 8 4 1
Vince Williams Jr. 18 7 0 3
Desmond Bane S 32 3 2 6
Lamar Stevens 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 37 3 6
Jalen Williams S 29 20 5 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 18 11 4
Cason Wallace 28 10 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 29 9 1 5
Kenrich Williams 20 8 2 1
Isaiah Joe 21 7 4 2
Alex Caruso 10 6 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 25 4 9 2
Jaylin Williams 8 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
23%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
8%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
8%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 33.7 4.2 7.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.9 4.7 6.4
3 Desmond Bane MEM 21.7 7.1 5.9
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.5 4.4 1.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.5 8.8 2.2
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.3 10.3 3.9
7 Cason Wallace OKC 13.0 3.8 3.0
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.2 3.8 5.0
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 5.8 3.5
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.6 4.7 1.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.3 3.0 2.4
12 Luke Kennard MEM 11.0 2.9 3.9
13 Alex Caruso OKC 9.5 3.1 2.3
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.1 6.5 2.9
15 Zach Edey MEM 8.4 7.0 1.1
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.9 3.5 1.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.0 3.3 1.7
18 Jaylen Wells MEM 6.9 3.5 1.7
19 Jay Huff MEM 5.2 2.5 0.6
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.3 2.0 0.7
21 Cam Spencer MEM 4.1 1.3 0.9
22 John Konchar MEM 3.9 3.0 0.9
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.9 2.2 1.2
24 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.2 2.5 0.5
25 Adam Flagler OKC 3.2 1.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.