NBA games

LAL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
117–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL22373226117
CHI32261744119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CHI
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 37 30 1 3
Luka Doncic S 38 25 10 8
Jaxson Hayes S 32 19 8 1
LeBron James S 39 17 5 12
Gabe Vincent 14 8 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 18 8 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 7 5 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 3 4 2
Dalton Knecht 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 38 26 3 9
Josh Giddey S 40 25 14 11
Kevin Huerter S 40 21 6 5
Nikola Vucevic S 32 14 8 2
Matas Buzelis S 25 12 7 1
Patrick Williams 29 11 5 4
Zach Collins 16 10 3 0
Julian Phillips 7 0 0 0
Dalen Terry 13 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
16%
2 Coby White CHI
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
7 Kevin Huerter CHI
10%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
9 Luka Doncic LAL
6%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
44%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.0 8.6 8.3
2 Coby White CHI 28.8 4.6 4.3
3 LeBron James LAL 25.5 10.6 6.5
4 Austin Reaves LAL 24.9 5.4 6.4
5 Josh Giddey CHI 24.8 10.0 9.7
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.4 8.5 3.2
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 15.6 4.3 3.5
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.1 4.1 1.5
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.3 6.4 1.5
10 Dalton Knecht LAL 10.1 2.8 1.5
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.6 3.8 1.4
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.2 1.8 1.4
13 Jordan Goodwin LAL 7.6 4.0 1.8
14 Patrick Williams CHI 7.1 3.0 1.6
15 Zach Collins CHI 6.9 5.6 1.7
16 Dalen Terry CHI 6.4 2.3 1.5
17 Jalen Smith CHI 6.4 5.5 1.3
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.8 2.7 1.2
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.0 3.6 1.7
20 Shake Milton LAL 3.6 1.5 0.8
21 Bronny James LAL 3.6 1.0 0.8
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.5 1.4 1.2
23 Markieff Morris LAL 3.4 1.2 0.9
24 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 3.2 1.4 0.9
25 Christian Koloko LAL 2.7 2.4 0.6
26 Alex Len LAL 2.1 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.