NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
112–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32232532112
MIA22383329122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 29 2 12
Caris LeVert 28 17 5 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 15 9 0
Terance Mann 27 14 1 1
Vit Krejci S 26 14 6 4
Dyson Daniels S 35 9 8 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 5 0 4
Georges Niang 14 5 3 0
Dominick Barlow 14 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 36 3 4
Davion Mitchell 36 16 2 6
Andrew Wiggins S 33 16 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 38 12 10 4
Haywood Highsmith 34 11 2 2
Alec Burks S 16 11 1 2
Kyle Anderson 18 10 2 4
Kel'el Ware S 21 7 12 0
Pelle Larsson 7 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 14-foot jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
6 Trae Young ATL
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.8 4.0 10.9
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA 23.0 4.1 3.8
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.6 4.5 5.2
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.1 7.3 4.5
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.6 10.1 4.3
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.2 6.5 5.6
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.0 10.6 2.5
8 Caris LeVert ATL 15.9 3.5 3.3
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.9 4.3 1.5
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.0 3.7 3.4
11 Georges Niang ATL 11.7 3.0 2.1
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.7 8.7 1.5
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.0 3.4 4.8
14 Terance Mann ATL 10.9 3.5 1.7
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.7 1.8 1.5
16 Vit Krejci ATL 7.0 2.6 2.7
17 Alec Burks MIA 6.7 2.3 1.3
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.5 3.4 2.1
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 6.4 2.9 2.5
20 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 3.5 2.2
21 Terry Rozier MIA 6.0 2.0 1.6
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 5.6 3.5 0.7
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.5 3.6 0.9
24 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.2 1.6 1.2
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.1 2.2 0.6
26 Kevin Love MIA 3.2 2.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.